BCA：美股牛市看日本，科技股估值泡沫？Is Japan A Threat To The US Bull Market?

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备受全球顶尖买方青睐的独立 研究机构 BCA Research 在北京时间10月31日发出了一片简 评，标题为：“ Is Japan A Threat To The US Bull Market? ” ，认为 美股能否继续走牛关键在日本！ Our Counterpoint Strategy team believes the equity bull market’s biggest risk is the reversal of the divergence between Japanese and US real yields. Japan’s real policy interest rate differential versus the US stands at an unprecedented and unsustainable -5.4%, a twelve percentage points reduction since 2022. 我们的对策策略团队认为，美股牛市面临的最大风险是日本和美国实际收益率差距的逆转。当前，日本的实际政策利率与美国之间的利差达到前所未有且不可持续的-5.4%，这一差距自2022年以来已缩小了12个百分点。 As a result, tech valuations decoupled from long-duration bond prices and are now negatively correlated with the yen. This correlation suggests borrowing in yen at deeply ne ………………………………