每日原则：根据预期价值计算做决策

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把每个决策都视为一个押注，押对有一个概率，有相应的奖励； 押错有一个概率，有相应的惩罚。 会赢的决策通常是具有正向预期价值的决策，也就是说，奖励乘以其发生概率的数值大于惩罚乘以其发生概率的数值，预期价值最高的决策是最好的决策。    Think of every decision as a bet with a probability and a reward for being right and a probability and a penalty for being wrong. Normally a winning decision is one with a positive expected value, meaning that the reward times its probability of occurring is greater than the penalty times its probability of occurring, with the best decision being the one with the highest expected value.   瑞·达利欧官方微信公众号: raydalio_ 《每日原则》为瑞·达利欧(Ray Dalio) 原创， 《原则》团队翻译，欢迎分享，转载请注明出处。 ………………………………