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01 Growth Off the Rails: Aggregate Productivity Growth in Distorted Economies Richard Hornbeck; Martin Rotemberg Abstract ： We examine aggregate economic gains in the United States as the railroad network expanded in the nineteenth century. Using data from the Census of Manufactures, we estimate relative increases in county aggregate productivity from relative increases in county market access. In general equilibrium, we find that the railroads substantially increased national aggregate productivity. By accounting for input distortions, we estimate much larger aggregate economic gains from the railroads than previous estimates. Our estimates highlight how broadly-used infrastructure or technologies can have much larger economic impacts when there are inefficiencies in the economy. 02 Safe Assets Markus K. Brunnermeier; Sebastian Merkel; and Yuliy Sannikov Abstract ： The price of a safe asset reflects not only the expected discounted future cash flows but also future service flow
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