原文分段阅读

文章预览

Imagine that America is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual disease that is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative responses are proposed. Assume that the consequences of the programmes are as follows: if option A is adopted, 200 people will be saved. If B is chosen, there is a one-third probability that 600 people will be saved and a two-thirds probability that none will be. Which would you choose? Now assume a different pair of options. If C is implemented, 400 people will perish; if D is preferred, there is a one-third probability that nobody will die and a two-thirds probability that 600 people will. Which will you choose now? If you are like most people, you chose A in the first scenario, and D in the second. If you stopped and deliberately did the maths, though, or have read Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow", you will have noticed that the two scenarios ………………………………