高盛市场点评

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我们认为，任何大型刺激方案可能需要多个关键部门的共同努力，且将主要依赖财政资源进行资金支持。我们将关注即将召开的临时会议和10月底的下一次“NPC大会”。We believe any large stimulus package may require joint efforts from many key ministries, and will need to be largely funded by fiscal resources. We willbe watching for upcoming ad hoc meetings and the next NPC standing committee meeting late October. 我们继续预期，上头将在年底前批准额外的1-2万亿超长期特别债券配额，利用前几年积累的未使用地方债券发行配额来促进债务置换，并在2025年及之后维持财政宽松的立场。We continue to expect policymakers to approve an additional RMB1-2tn ultra-long-term central government special bond quota by year-end, tap unspent local government bond issuance quota accumulated fromprevious years to facilitate debt swaps, and maintain their fiscal easing stance in 2025 and eve ………………………………